During the UPA tenor there had been a strong
consumption cycle largely led by rural consumption demand. Populist measures of
the erstwhile government of increasing subsidies and minimum support prices
(MSP) without addressing supply bottlenecks ensured that the food inflation
remained high keeping the overall inflation above the RBI's comfort zone.
High inflation and interest rates made investors park funds in inflation hedge asset classes like gold and real estate. Government inaction and a scam charged environment at the backdrop of global uncertainties made the GDP fall from the record high of 11.4% in Q1, 2010 to 4.6% in Q4, 2014.
In an environment of slow growth and high inflation, the defensive sectors like FMCG andPharma outperformed domestic cyclicals. Also in a risk averse environment, significant flows were witnessed in debt funds despite of the fact that most failed to beat the consumer inflation index even on a pre-tax basis.
With a stable government in the center, there are reasons to believe now that financial savings and investment cycle will be back and structural problems related to inflation will be decisively addressed. Several steps are already announced to tackle high food inflation like asking states to de-list certain fruits and vegetables from the APMC Act, re-impose Minimum Export Prices, and release food stock in the open market to minimal increase in Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for Kharif crop.
Notwithstanding poor monsoon there are reasons to believe that the inflation will moderate from the current levels towards the end of the fiscal with WPI ending at 5%. On the growth and development front, there are several expectation from the government like reducing subsidies, expediting environment clearances, boosting FDI, amending labour and land acquisition laws and promote mining to name a few. Also government has shown strong intention to remain on the path of fiscal prudence in the near term. All this bodes well for the economy from a longer term perspective.
Poor investment demand for gold from economies like India and China, lifting of import curbs and anticipated dollar rise due to QE taper will all continue to put pressure on gold prices in the future. Regarding currency while foreign flows had been strong in both debt and equity, RBI had been using this opportunity to buy dollars and build forex reserves (over $315 billion currently) and not let rupee appreciate significantly. On a base case it is expected to be range bound between 58-62 levels.
What all this means from a portfolio perspective is:
a) Debt will continue to attract flows with rates expected to stay stronger for longer and accrual funds and high yield bonds likely to do well while duration funds make a case purely from a tactical allocation perspective with a 18-24months time horizon
b) Equities make a strong case for overweight stance in portfolios despite of the recent run-up however it can experience interim volatility due to local (Poor rainfall, budget announcements) and global (Iraq crisis) factors. On a base case market is not expected to fall below 5-7% from the current levels while on the upside Sensex could touch 27,000 by the fiscal year end. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
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